The recent rains have generated flashbacks to the brutal weather that ravaged West Marin over the last few years: historic drought followed by repeated atmos-pheric rivers. But after several years of extremes, West Marin’s meteorological patterns so far this weather year have been close to normal—if such a thing exists any longer in the era of climate change.
Since July 1, when water districts start measuring annual rainfall, 21.7 inches of rain have fallen on Mount Tamalpais, two inches less than last year and just an inch above normal.
Rainfall in Inverness has also been close to the average logged over the 94 years for which the Inverness Public Utility District has records.
“We’re on target for the first six months to be exactly where we’d expect,” said Wade Holland, a spokesman for IPUD. “But sometimes the first six months can be very misleading compared to what the entire year looks like.”
This year’s rains have been interspersed with stretches of sunny weather, and temperatures have been warmer than usual. That is welcome news to farmers and ranchers.
“There’s been time for the water to soak into the soil and keep the grass growing,” said Stefan Parnay, the Marin County director of Agriculture, Weights and Measures. “If it continues like this, with rains a couple times a week and temperatures staying warm, it would really be ideal.”
But weather forecasters have said we’re in for an El Niño year, so there’s no telling what might happen next. “Things have just been so upside down for many years now that it’s really hard to predict,” Mr. Parnay said. “You know, what is normal?”
A year ago, back-to-back atmospheric rivers beginning in December wreaked havoc in West Marin, repeatedly knocking out power, downing dozens of massive trees and flooding low-lying areas. On Jan. 3, a so-called bomb cyclone unleashed its fury and expanded everyone’s meteorological vocabulary.
In Stinson bBeach, the combination of heavy rain, king tides and storm surge deluged the Calles neighborhood, damaging 45 homes and inundating septic systems on shorefront properties.
Last week, it seemed a repeat performance was in the offing, with tides high, storm surge swelling and weather forecasters predicting that 30-foot waves would crash ashore, as they did up and down the California coast. But Stinson emerged relatively unscathed this time, with only five houses suffering damage in the Calles.
Local emergency workers weren’t taking any chances, however. They issued an evacuation order Thursday morning, sending text alerts to Seadrift residents and going door-to-door in the Calles, urging people to seek shelter at the community center.
The damage could have been far worse, said Jesse Peri, the Stinson Beach fire chief. Duxbury Reef offered protection from the westerly swell, absorbing the power of the surge and reducing the expected 30-foot waves to just 10 feet or so.
About 70 rescue personnel from various agencies helped deliver sandbags, check on homes and staff the evacuation center. Emergency personnel were better prepared this year, with a series of alerts prepared in advance and ready to go, said Steven Torrence, director of the Marin County Office of Emergency Management. “I’d estimate that it saved us between 15 and 30 minutes,” Mr. Torrence said. “And when you’re evacuating people, every minute counts.”