The election of Sonoma Supervisor Mike McGuire as state senator for California’s Second District can be predicted with near certainty, even though the primary isn’t until June 3 and McGuire won’t be officially elected until November 4. 

State Senator Noreen Evans previously oversaw the district—created in 2010 through redistricting and stretching from Marin County to the Oregon border—but she is retiring this year. Several prominent Democrats initially declared that they would run for the seat,…