Marin County will appeal a state mandate to plan for thousands of new homes over the next decade, arguing that the allocation does not factor in the county’s unique characteristics that make building difficult.

In a 4-1 vote, the Board of Supervisors directed planners to appeal Marin’s regional housing needs allocation of 3,569 new homes. The appeal also asks the Association of Bay Area Governments, or ABAG, to adjust the allocation to favor more low-income units. 

“I don’t think any of us are talking about not building housing,” Supervisor Dennis Rodoni said. “It’s just the magnitude of the numbers that we’ve been given, and the reality is that we only [planned for] 185 in the last cycle. And the counties and cities don’t actually build housing; it takes developers to build housing.”

Governments across the Bay Area are grappling with a dramatic jump in housing mandates from the California Department of Housing and Development. The state sets the number for the region, and ABAG divvies it up among cities and counties.

The Bay Area’s draft allocation more than doubled for the upcoming cycle due to population growth, a greater emphasis on social equity and changes to state law and allocation methods. The allocation varies between cities and counties based on access to public transit, good schools, high employment and low poverty rates. Marin is considered a high resource area, so its allocation jumped to a greater degree than other counties: Its allocation is 19 times what it was in the last cycle. 

The allocation can be appealed to ABAG, and many municipalities are doing so. Larkspur, Sausalito and Corte Madera are appealing, and Fairfax is considering it. If a jurisdiction wins its appeal, the allocation is redistributed into a neighboring city or town. 

“That potentially pits the county and all 11 cities and towns against each other,” said Tom Lai, the director of the county’s Community Development Agency.

Marin will appeal for three reasons: The allocation exposes existing and future communities to fires and floods; it does not factor in unique land-use constraints, like the amount of land preserved for agriculture; and it does not consider the impacts of the current drought and whether water will be available to serve new housing in the foreseeable future.

The appeal must be submitted by Friday, and an ABAG committee will conduct hearings in September and October, after a public comment period. The final plan will be adopted by December.

Supervisor Judy Arnold opposed the appeal. Look at Highway 37 and see all of the workers commuting from Vallejo to Novato and San Rafael, and imagine what that commute does to the environment, she said.

“We are going to be castigated like you wouldn’t believe in Sacramento because we never go for affordable housing—and they say it without flinching because it’s true,” she said. “I’ve been here since 2006, and I’ve never seen supervisors happy to support housing, and I just think that’s sad.”

Marin has a long history of opposing development in the name of environmental protection and keeping out non-white residents. Latinos are concentrated in the Canal neighborhood and Black residents are concentrated in Marin City because of past discriminatory policies. Supervisors have turned down many large housing projects because of resistance from neighbors. More than 80 percent of the county’s land is protected for open space or agriculture, and the Community Development Agency estimates that 5 percent remains available for development. 

For 2023 to 2031, Marin is ordered to build 1,734 low and very low-income homes, and 1,835 moderate and above moderate-income homes. 

Marin’s appeal will not propose a new allocation, only argue that the number be reduced and shifted toward affordable housing.

In the current cycle, certified in 2015, Marin planned for 185 new homes at different income levels by 2023. Developers have no problem building homes at above-market rates: 173 homes were built from 2015 to 2019, surpassing the state’s goal of 61. But they have failed to develop residences for very-low-income residents, with just 30 of 55 homes built.

The county must report progress annually to the state, and if it does not meet its target, it may become ineligible for state funding for transportation and subject to fixed standards for housing, taking away local control. Planners identify parcels that are suitable for housing at different income levels, as well as strategies to make it easier to build; whether a developer does so is out of their hands. Planners are prohibited from identifying multi-family housing sites in neighborhoods that have a high concentration of minority ethnic groups. The county hired MIG, a planning consultant, for $1.6 million to develop an environmental impact report for the upcoming cycle.

Marin’s approach to housing involves strategies other than building, Supervisor Damon Connolly said. The county preserves and acquires existing housing, creates accessory dwelling units and issues protections for renters. “We are pursuing housing strategies in a way that makes sense for Marin,” he said.

Supervisor Katie Rice said she wanted to appeal, but not because of the drought. The county can better manage potable water and still have some development, she said. “Historically, water has been used as a rationale for no growth, and I think it gets abused,” she said.

She also said she wanted a better sense of the development possibilities in unincorporated areas compared to cities, but planners are not far enough along in the process to know.

Development will be focused in areas neighboring cities and along the Highway 101 corridor, where the infrastructure is best suited for new buildings. On the coast, the county and its land trust partners aim to preserve housing and fill in the villages.