As rains begin to roll back into West Marin, residents and government representatives are preparing for winter and talking about how hard the impending, much-hyped El Niño episode might hit the region’s most flood-prone areas.

Though weather experts across the country are only certain that they have no idea how exactly the weather will behave, the general verdict is that folks can bet on a much rainier season than in the recent past to sweep across large swaths of drought-parched California, including West Marin.

“The odds are good for it to be a very wet winter,” said Charles Bell, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. “Everything is still on track for a much higher than normal chance for above-normal rainfall. So now is a good time to prepare.”

Mr. Bell said that he expects the most substantial rains to make landfall in January, February and March. Meanwhile, many have yet to be impressed by the recent string of stormy Mondays.

“We’ve had, what, an inch and a half of rain to date?” quipped Jim Simon, who manages the Ace Building Supply Center in Point Reyes Station. “That’s one hell of an El Niño.”

Mr. Simon noted, however, that his hardware store is ready for customers to come calling once the heavy rains do arrive: it’s stocked with tarps, batteries and other storm-prep equipment.

Caused by anomalous warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures, this year’s El Niño is expected to rank as one of the three strongest such events on record. Currently, the cyclical weather event—which pops up every eight years or so—is registering on a stronger scale now than it did during this same period in 1997, when the last powerful El Niño wrought devastating droughts, floods and other natural disasters all over the world. And for the first time ever recorded, three category-four hurricanes whorled simultaneously across the Pacific Ocean in August—signs that, according to meteorologists, El Niño may be beginning to show its face.

The threat of annual winter flooding has long weighed on the minds of residents and county and state agencies, which already have commenced standard flood-prevention efforts. Last week, the Marin County Department of Public Works initiated its annual check-and-clean of every culvert that crosses a county-owned road, and the California Department of Transportation is in the process of securing permits required to shore up flood hotspots along Highway 1, in particular the Bolinas Lagoon. 

Both agencies have suggested homeowners should start cleaning clogged-up gutters, pipes and ditches, which contribute more so than anything to localized road flooding from Tomales to Bolinas. 

But among the hardest-hit areas in the county is Stinson Beach, where storms hurl tidal waves and waters breach the banks of Easkoot Creek.

Last December, a large storm wrecked a newly completed passageway—called an “outfall”—that the National Park Service built to direct flooding creek waters out of one of its beachside parking lots and into the ocean, away from nearby homes on Calle del Pinos. But a sand berm behind the outfall, which was meant to deflect tidal waves, was so high that it blocked the flood’s retreat; a huge pool of water formed in the lot, threatening to flood several homes.

Crews arrived a day later, knocked down a portion of the sand berm with hand tools and the water drained. In all, the outfall project had cost the park $180,000.

“It’s tricky to allow floodwaters to flow out and also prevent waves from coming in,” said Chris Carpenter, a civil engineer for the park and the project’s manager.

The park service has claimed the problem is now fixed. Late last month, it fortified the outfall with pre-cast concrete blocks and large riprap keyed 18 feet down into the ground. Additionally, the sand berm—originally one-foot high—has been reconstructed to slope downward, below the pavement.

The park also built up a second berm between the lot and the homes to two feet, a height it has deemed sufficient to prevent flooding from a storm similar to the one last December.

But even despite these tweaks, Mr. Carpenter said he doubts the structure would prevent flooding entirely during a large storm, unless Easkoot Creek were dredged to create more water capacity. The county, which manages the creek, has not dredged so far this year.

“What’s happening is the creek is jumping out of its channel because it has less capacity. The flooding is a symptom, because the creek hasn’t been dredged,” Mr. Carpenter said.

If big storms strike as many suspect they will, flooding will not be the only problem: downed trees could yank power lines from their poles. Aside from power outages, dislodged lines hidden in flooding and tree debris would pose an immediate threat to public safety.

“We want our customers to be aware of the dangers around downed and damaged power lines,” said Brian Swanson, a spokesperson for the Pacific Gas and Electric Company. “They should always assume that downed power lines are energized and extremely dangerous.”

Many organizations are prepared to respond to crises, in particular the Marin County Fire Department and the Point Reyes Disaster Council. These two groups, along with K.W.M.R., coordinate to respond quickly, and depend on neighborhood liaisons to relay local information to communications outposts such as the fire station. The council has called for residents to provide neighborhood liaisons with more household information—such as who lives where or who is disabled—as well as who has emergency equipment or other resources. The councils also need more liaisons themselves.

“We really need more residents stepping into this role, especially younger ones,” said Lynn Axelrod, the coordinator for the Point Reyes Disaster Council. “There’s an older generation here who got involved a couple of decades ago while working and raising kids. They could use relievers now.”