With just days before the Nov. 5 election, supporters of Measure A, a proposal to raise the Marin sales tax by one quarter cent to maintain parks and preserve open space, are far from certain the measure will pass.
"We're hopeful," said Bob Berner, director of Marin Agricultural Land Trust. "I certainly can't say we're optimistic. A two-thirds vote is a very high hurdle. We do expect it to be quite close.
"Twenty-five percent [of voters] are adamantly opposed to a tax measure - it doesn't matter what it's for."
Measure A would raise $50 million over 10 years. Roughly half the money would go to park maintenance, and half would go towards permanently preserving open space.
Specifically, MALT would get 25 percent of the revenue, or $12.5 million, to purchase development rights - sometimes called conservation or agricultural easements - from West Marin ranchers.
Another $12.5 million would go to the county Open Space District for maintaining land it already owns and buying more.
Cities in Marin would get 40 percent - $20 million - for repairing and maintaining existing parks and creating new ones. The city-park money would be apportioned based on population and a city's success in generating sales tax.
The county would get the remaining 10 percent, or $5 million to create and maintain county parks.
Explicit in the ordinance that would be enacted by Measure A is language calling for "positive alternatives for youth" and the reduction of fire hazards on county land - a provision prompted by last year's Inverness Ridge fire.
"From MALT's perspective," Berner said, "our agricultural lands are threatened by high land prices and development pressures. Zoning alone doesn't protect them."
Supporters argue that if ranch operations begin to fail because of falling milk and beef prices, rising feed and operational costs, and high inheritance taxes, A-60 zoning (one house per 60 acres of agricultural land) could someday be overturned in court.
A struggling rancher who sells development rights to MALT can take the large infusion of cash to pay off taxes, buy out family members, invest in income properties elsewhere, or sink the money into capital improvements.
MALT's easement-acquisition budget is down to about a half-million dollars, which is not enough to buy a conservation easement on even one large coastal ranch.
If Measure A doesn't pass, MALT will continue to monitor the easements it already controls, Berner said. However, no other funding source for acquisitions has appeared on the horizon.
This is MALT's second attempt in four years to fund its program through a tax increase. A1992 measure would have levied a $25-per-year parcel tax for four years to raise $8 million for MALT and the Open Space District. Needing a two-thirds majority, the measure failed with 62 percent support.
With lessons learned from that defeat, this year's attempt would generate far more money for protecting open space, and this time city and county parks have been included. Supporters are hoping the $25 million earmarked to upgrade county and city parks and recreational facilities will entice voters in eastern Marin.
Furthermore, the parcel tax idea was scrapped. Proponents are betting that voters will prefer a sales tax, which would spread the burden out among residents and tourists alike.
However, the new package hasn't convinced some business leaders in Marin. Sandy Greenblat, the president of the San Rafael Chamber of Commerce, has led the opposition to Measure A, which he thinks is a good solution to the wrong problem.
"All of us - 235,000 of us [county residents] - are complaining about gridlock and [deteriorating] infrastructure. There are immense social problems out on the streets," he said. "Open space is not the priority."
Greenblat said a shortage of low-cost housing, traffic congestion, and cuts in social services are more pressing concerns, and that passing a tax increase now for parks and open space could thwart future efforts to raise taxes for other problems.
Although he supports MALT's program to stave off development on agricultural lands, the work shouldn't be done with public money unless the public gets access to the land. "That's not a proper use of public funds," he said.
Even less proper, Greenblat added, is using taxpayer money to subsidize county open space purchases when the Open Space District doesn't have enough money to maintain land it already owns.
Greenblat said the measure's supporters have coy in explaining just how much of the open space money would be spent on land acquisition and how much on maintenance.
On several occasions since July, that information was withheld under the explanation that Measure A's ballot language was not yet drafted, he said. One of those occasions was when MALT President Larry McFadden asked Greenblat to support the measure.
"All they were doing was hiding it," Greenblat said. "They expected us to lay down, and that's wrong."
Countered Berner, "He continues to say that, and it's just baloney. It's a red herring." The MALT director said the cities and the county Open Space District will have discretion over their funds, but it's safe to anticipate that $1 million annually would be spent on land buys.
"He and I have debated several times," Berner said, "and I have made that statement every time. What [Greenblat] doesn't like is that in the measure itself, the word acquisition isn't used." The word protection is used instead.
Berner agreed that social services and infrastructure are high priorities, but said there is "no public consensus" on addressing those needs. He noted that Measure A won't siphon off money from any other project.
He added that food and shelter are exempt from the tax, so "the burden on people who can't afford it is pretty modest. It's a very small tax." Meanwhile, he said, "soccer fields and baseball fields are overrun on weekends."
The Marin County Farm Bureau has added its name to the list of Measure A supporters, which includes all county supervisors, numerous county and city officials, and a long list of environmental groups.
Those against the measure include some chambers of commerce in eastern Marin and taxpayer advocates.