With floods and famines striking around the globe, and collective case of millennial fever on its way, residents of West Marin might want to worry about a prospective calamity close to home: the flooding that would occur if a large earthquake knocks out Nicasio or Kent Lake dams.

Based on calculations by Marin Municipal Water District, if Nicasio Dam broke the escaping water would race downstream to Point Point Station, where downtown could be under seven feet of water within half an hour, Stone said. In addition, water would push upstream, flooding Tocaloma.

Although the Point Reyes Station mesa and West Marin School would be left high-and-dry, the entire commercial district would be inundated. Also, homes along Levee Road could be swept away completely as the water fanned out on its way to Tomales Bay, she added.

The flooding would be similar if Alpine Dam at Alpine Lake and Peters Dam at Kent Lake failed simultaneously, although the surge of water in this case would take about 45 minutes to arrive in Point Reyes Station, she said.

During that time, Samuel P. Taylor Park would be aroar with water that would "cause a major problem" for creekside homes in Jewell and Tocaloma, and wash out large portions of Sir Francis Drake Boulevard.

The San Andreas Fault, which runs the length of Tomales Bay and the Olema Valley, would be the obvious culprit, she said. Problematic too might be the little-known San Geronimo Fault, a seismic crack along the south side of the Nicasio Dam.\

Marin Municipal senior engineer Dana Roxon, who lives in Point Reyes Station, told The Light that all three dams are seismically sturdy. "They were built to survive [earthquakes of magnitude 8] and a little higher with minimal damage, and without catastrophic failure."

Peters Dam was originally built during the 1950s, and was added to in the early 1980s "with full modern seismic review," he said. Alpine Dam came out "surprisingly well" during a recent seismic review, despite being several decades old. Nicasio Dam, built in 1961, was well designed, although it's now "in line for a major seismic review," Roxon said.

In the event of a magnitude 8 or larger quake, the dams probably wouldn't burst completely. Instead, they'd crack in parts, limiting the water's escape, Roxon said.

While visualizing a mammoth quake in West Marin may be merely an imaginative exercise, such an event is possible - especially during seasons of heavy rain, said Point Reyes Station resident Phil Fradkin, author of the newly published Magnitude 8: Earthquakes and Life Along the San Andreas Fault.

"Too little attention has been paid to the potential of dams breaking in California given an extraordinary event, such as a magnitude-8 earthquake," Fradkin said. "Historically, at least two catastrophes have occurred due to the seismic weakness of dams...

"During the 1920s, an earthquake caused the St. Francis Dam in Los Angeles County to break, and 500 people were killed in the wake of the water's path through northern Los Angeles and Ventura counties. And in the Baldwin Hills Dam earthquake event in the 1960s, a subdivision was wiped out in the water's path through Los Angeles County."

Fradkin says he often wonders "what the water would look like" if the dams in West Marin broke. "There would be a tremendous wall of water descending along the creekbeds. Bridges would be washed out, and there would be some landslides, causing problems of access and retreat along roadways. It could be that we would be isolated for some time."

And no one would be forewarned, he added. "There's no alert system set up, like for tsunamis in Hawaii. People would have to take precautions ahead of time. It really comes down to community members having this scenario in mind so that they will be prepared."

Unfortunately, West Marin isn't prepared, disaster consultant Stone said. The number of firefighters, sheriff's deputies, and highway patrolmen who live and work in Point Reyes Station is limited, she said, noting that "if there was a countywide disaster, West Marin would have to rely mostly on its own resources."

While homeowners along flood-plagued Levee Road have a good disaster plan in place, most other residents in the area don't, she said.

"My main concern is that we have not had a good response from businesspeople regarding disaster. It's not a popular subject. People don't want to deal with it. But they're responsible for their staff and clients, and that adds up to a lot of people in downtown Point Reyes Station."

What are three things people can do to help themselves and others survive a natural disaster?

"Preparation beforehand at home and at work is really important," she said. "People should stock emergency supplies, have a get-away bag with valuable papers, and establish a place to meet their family members. They should also take first-aid training or disaster training."

Evacuate, if necessary. "People should know in advance where the nearest shelters are," she said. West Marin's shelters include: West Marin School in Point Reyes Station; St. Columba Church in Inverness; St. Cecelia's Catholic Church in Lagunitas; San Geronimo Presbyterian Church; and the community centers in Woodacre, Stinson Beach, and Bolinas.

Assist others. "People should help out if they're in good physical shape," she said, adding that those with nursing skills and/or disaster training are most needed.

Residents who want to enlist in West Marin's disaster-training program that began Nov. 5 "can jump in midstream," by calling 663-8361 to register, she said.

Business owners can obtain emergency-preparedness information packets from Deni O'Brien at Taqueria La Quinta in Point Reyes Station.

One benefit of being trained to help in crises is the likelihood that you'll remain sane through the mess, Stone said. "If you're prepared, you often feel like you have more control of the situation. It takes the fear away - and there's a lot of fear around disasters."

Stone acknowledged one added benefit: "You'll be ready for Y2K."

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